Windows XP and Vista Long Term Support Plan

[Mike Hommey]

On Fri, Oct 14, 2016 at 11:41:29AM -0400, Peter Dolanjski wrote:
> >
> > On 13/10/16 18:52, Justin Dolske wrote:
> > > I'd suggest placing bounds on it, so we can all be on the same page and
> > > comfortable with what's being committed to. E.G. "We project that at
> > > current rates, XP usage is expected to drop to X% by the normal end of
> > > ESR52. If, at the normal end of ESR52, usage remains above X+e%, we will
> > > further extend the life of ESR52 for an additional Z months. After that
> > > Z months, ESR52 will be discontinued irrespective of usage."
> 
> 
> We can do that if it is useful, beyond a commitment for a final end of life
> date.
> 
> On 10/13/2016 1:37 PM, L. David Baron wrote:
> >
> >> So if we're actually talking about possibly maintaining ESR52 for
> >> three years, I think we'd be better off not doing this, and
> >> continuing to support XP and Vista in our non-ESR releases.
> >>
> >> If we're willing to make a firmer commitment to ending support, I
> >> think the plan becomes more reasonable.
> >>
> >> Then we need to make that commitment.
> >
> 
> Based on an upper and lower bound projection, the end of ESR52 (likely
> April-ish 2018) shows that WinXP should be between 2.5-4.2% our Firefox
> Average Monthly ADIs.  By January 1st, 2019, the range is 0.8-2.6% of
> monthly ADIs (though that's trending pretty far out).
> I think we can say with some certainty that the worst case scenario (in
> terms of length of support) is the end of 2018.

... assuming the ADIs go down as projected. What if they don't?

Mike